Will Craig Kimbrel Ever Be Dominant Again?
- Turner Givens
- Aug 5, 2020
- 6 min read
Updated: Jan 3, 2021
From 2010-2018, Craig Kimbrel was one the most dominant closers in Major League Baseball. If you don't believe me, just take a look at his stat line from those 9 years: 1.91 ERA, 333 Saves, 532.2 IP, 868 Ks, and 285 Hits. That's good for a 14.7 K/9 (absolutely ridiculous), and a .154/.245/.240 opponent slash line. Pairing his flaming 97-100MPH fastball with a soul stealing curveball, Kimbrel was able to create one of the greatest careers by a closer in the history of the game. So why after signing a 3-year $43,000,000 with the Cubs in 2019, has Craig Kimbrel turned into a complete mess, racking up an atrocious stat line of: 8.46 ERA, 13 Saves, 22.1 IP, 31 Ks, and 25 Hits for a 12.5 K/9, and a .278/.400/.711 opponent slash line. I dove deep into the world of baseball analytics to find out, and here's what I brought back:
Kimbrel's Health
For the most part of Craig Kimbrel's career, he's been fortunate enough to stay healthy. A meniscus tear in 2016 only set him back about a month during that season, while a couple of stints on the 10-day IL for right knee and elbow inflammation may have slowed him down in 2019. I wouldn't call any of these injuries career threatening, as he's been able to return from every single issue. I do not believe injuries have caused the decline of Craig Kimbrel. Maybe you can say age is a factor, but at 32 years old, Kimbrel still throws gas. So what is it that's holding him back from being dominant again?
Metrics and Mechanics
The first thing I noticed about Kimbrel's stuff over the past two years is fastball velocity and spin rate of his fastball and curveball. Over the last two seasons, Kimbrel's average fastball velo is 96.3, which is more than 1 MPH slower than his average during the 2010-2018 seasons. Now, this might not seem like a huge decline, but combining that slight drop with a 100 RPM drop in fastball and curveball spin rate, spin axis changes, and location issues, no wonder he continues to get shelled.
When I dug deeper into the reasons behind this decrease in metrics, I found some interesting things. Craig Kimbrel has changed the spin axis of his fastball from ~1:00/~210 (degrees) to ~1:27/223 (degrees). This tilt means he is creating more run on his fastball causing the ride/vertical break to drop. If you look at the image below, you can see the last two seasons where his vertical break declined, are the years where his fastball spin axis started to stray away from 1:00.
This is a big issue for Kimbrel. He used to be a guy who could work his fastball up in the zone, belt high or higher. Now, with this change in spin axis, he can't elevate the fastball and blow it by guys like he's done in previous years.
Just like the fastball, his curveball spin axis has also changed. From 2010-2019, his curveball spin axis ranged from 7:15-7:25 with over 60% spin efficiency. This means he was creating a decent amount of front spin compared to side spin, which gave his curveball more depth. His curveball has really only been bad in one season, 2020. I know this season is different, but his curveball spin has jumped to ~7:55 and on video you can see it lacks the depth it has had in years past. So one can only assume the spin efficiency is down from 60%.
As you can see in the image below, these changes in spin axis has caused him to lose life on his fastball and depth on his curveball (both horizontal and vertical break).
Why did he make this change in spin axis? Was it a conscious change? I wanted to find out more on this, so the first place I looked was release point data on both pitches and BOOM. First thing you see in the images below is he has drastically changed his vertical and horizontal release points to be more 3/4 slot or sidearm. In theory, this is what has caused the change in fastball and curveball spin axis. A lower arm slot means a tilted fastball with more run and a curveball that has more gyro/slider spin. It limits Kimbrel's ability to get around the ball and create front spin from that slot.
I couldn't just take the numbers and run, though. I needed video to back it up. I found footage from centerfield of 2018 Kimbrel and 2020 Kimbrel and started to compare. As you watch the video, follow my analysis below:
Video Analysis
In initial setup, he's nearly identical in 2018 and 2020. It's tough to see from this angle, but as he gets to peak leg lift and starts to break his hands, you might notice a small weight shift/drift towards the plate in 2018 and less of a drift in 2020. This is where he might be losing momentum down the mound which helps create energy and velocity. When he breaks his hand out of his glove, you can see where his trunk is positioned using the line straight up from his knee. In 2018, Kimbrel has a slight trunk tilt behind the line which allows him to stay in his glute longer down the mound. In 2020, his trunk tilt is even and somewhat forward of the red line meaning he is becoming too quad dominant too early in his delivery. As the video continues, you can see right before heel strike the position of his trunk in 2018 is much more upright than 2020. At full foot strike, 2018 Kimbrel is in a good power position with his arm, his hips are still slightly closed, and his energy is moving towards the plate. 2020 Kimbrel's arm is slightly behind, his hips are more open, and his trunk is tilted more towards the RHH batters box/3rd base dugout. Quick summary before release: 2018 Kimbrel is on time with spiraling that energy up the chain (from the ground up), while 2020 Kimbrel is losing the spiral because he wasn't timed up from the start, causing his arm to be behind, hips to open early, and as you play the video into release, his release points are different. You might notice the arm angle is very similar in both years, but the timing issues in 2020, plus trunk tilt has caused him to throw with a lower slot. If you play the video all the way through, the velocity and the path of the ball are different. In 2018, Kimbrel's fastball jumps out of his hand through the zone, but in 2020 his fastball tails slightly and fades into a bad location.
After analyzing his mechanics, it made sense to me why he hasn't worked up in the zone in 2019 and 2020 nor has he been successful when he does find his way up there. His new mechanics make it more difficult to pitch up in the zone and makes high fastballs less effective for reasons mentioned above.
Before I sign off, lets look at the location of his pitches and whiffs in those locations from 2010-2018 and 2019-2020:
Above is a chart from Brooks Baseball showing Kimbrel's fastball usage in 2010-2018 (left) and 2019-2020 (right). There are some similarities in these two zone, although the sample size is different between the two. The two big differences I see in the results:
1. 2019-2020 Kimbrel is throwing a lot more pitches in the zone, specifically in very hittable locations
2. 2010-2018 Kimbrel worked the shadow of the zone and up and in to righties, while 2020 Kimbrel is spiking a lot of fastballs gloveside and working down in the zone more than he should.
#2 definitely stems from the mechanical issues he's been facing the last couple of years.
This next set of images is fastball whiff % by zone:
2010-2018 Kimbrel collected more whiffs belt high and up than 2019-2020 Kimbrel. This is most likely due to his fastball not having as much ride and keep over barrels middle and up.
The last four images are the same as above, but curveballs instead of fastballs:
2010-2018 Kimbrel (left) clustered his curveballs much more efficiently and effectively than 2020 Kimbrel (right). His ability to locate to curveball in 2010-2018 better than 2019-2020 allows him to get whiff results like the ones below:
As you can see, his curveball was completely dominant in 2010-2018 (left). He limited his misses over the plate and up which is why batters had trouble making any sort of contact.
The Flamethrower's Future
I know this was a lengthy article, but I hope the information showed why Kimbrel has declined so quickly. Making the proper adjustments to get back to his old self would allow Kimbrel to, once again, dominate MLB hitters. Mechanical changes can be very tough to make, especially with pitchers. Muscle memory takes over when moving fast with 100% effort, so changes in mechanics will take time. This was never a case of Kimbrel losing his stuff. He still has incredible velocity on his fastball and a disgusting banger, but when you aren't sequenced properly though your delivery, great stuff can become extremely average. I don't know if Kimbrel or the Cubs will ever read this, and who knows, maybe they're already aware of Kimbrel's issues. Regardless, there is a ton of opportunity available for Kimbrel to revitalize his career.
So to answer my initial question: Will Craig Kimbrel Ever Be Dominant Again?
Well, who really knows. I'd like to believe he will, but baseball is hard. The game is ruthless. I wouldn't bank on the legendary dominance of Craig Kimbrel to disappear forever.
Written by: Turner Givens
Twitter: @TurnerGivens @OTSbaseball
References:
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