CHRIS ARCHER - DEEP DIVE
- Turner Givens
- Dec 8, 2020
- 9 min read
2019 Statcast Statistics (2020 stats not available due to injury):
Barrel % - 10.5% (Bottom 7% of League)
Exit Velocity - 89.4 MPH
xwOBA - .352 (Career worst)
xSLG - .485 (Career worst)
K% - 27.2%
BB% - 10.5%
Avg FB Velo - 94.1 MPH (Career low)
Chris Archer was arguably one of the most electric SPs in the MLB between the 2015-2017 seasons. He racked up an impressive 10.8 K/9 in 614.1 IP with a 3.77 ERA and 3.36 FIP during his 3 best seasons.
Archer struggled at the beginning of 2018 and was traded to the Pirates for a slew of prospects: Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz. He continued his struggles for the remainder of 2018 and it followed him into his 2019 season as he put up career worst numbers.
Following a missed 2020 season due to surgery to fix neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome in his throwing arm, the Pirates declined his $11M option for the 2021 season. If teams believe they can get Archer back on track, the 32-year old looks to be a short term gamble for contenders in need of a frontline starter.
Archer’s 2019 season was one to forget. He finished with a 5.19 ERA, and if you’re not a fan of ERA, his 5.02 FIP wasn’t any better. Both were significantly below league average and by far the worst of his career.
According to BaseballSavant, he also finished in the bottom 7% of the league in Barrel % at 10.5%, collected a career worst in xwOBA and xSLG of .352 and .485, had a career high BB% of 10.5%, and saw his FB velocity drop to 94.1 MPH (.5 less than 2018 and 1.5 less than 2017).
To put all of that simply, Archer struggled with his overall command and struggled to throw quality strikes. As with most pitchers, lack of command leads to a high BB% and the inability to throw quality strikes (or as I call it, throwing muffins) leads to the high Barrel % and career worst xwOBA and xSLG.
So, why has Archer seen such a steep descent in success?
There’s 3 specific factors that I believe led to his decline: Mechanical issues, Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (NTOS), and pitch usage, specifically the sinker.
Mechanical Issues:
Mechanical issues are the first thing I look for when evaluating a pitcher who has seen such a quick decline in success and health. It’s important to find out if any changes have been made over the course of his career and the best way to do that is compare one of his best seasons (2017) to his worst season (2019). Before the breakdowns, I want to point out that Archer has never been the most efficient mover. Although it’ll be apparent that he moved much better in 2017 than in 2019, neither are ideal for a pitcher trying to perform at the highest level every year.
Above is a split screen of Archer’s mechanics from 2017 (left) and 2019 (right):
* Videos are synced up to front foot strike.
Starting with the set position through peak leg lift, there’s a couple things that stick out right away.
First, the momentum he creates towards the plate at the time of peak leg lift is greater in 2017 than in 2019. In 2017, Archer makes a very subtle move of closing his hips slightly which coils his back hip and pushes his front hip towards the plate. This helps him move down the slope of the mound more efficiently than in 2019. Although that’s a good movement to have, his mechanics start to break down in both clips when he sinks into the back leg using his knee, rather than his glute. This causes him to become quad dominant and disconnects his heel from the rubber way too early.
Next, look at the difference between the height of his leg kick in each year. In 2017, his knee does not cross his belt, while in 2019 his knee gets above his belly button. This creates a timing issue going forward.
The timing issue from the higher leg kick has a big effect on every movement that follows. As he continues through his motion, the hands break later in 2019 because everything is behind.
At this point, two things can happen:
Everything continues to be late as he gets to front foot strike and all the way through release.
He compensates for being late by speeding up and improperly unraveling the arm with poor rotation.
Neither of the two are good positions to be in.
Because Archer’s arm is late, he picks choice #2 from above. He needs to speed everything up and he does so by pulling his direction towards his glove side to allow his arm to catch up (as seen in 2019). He strides more open, hips open earlier, and his front shoulder starts to pull and tilt off to the glove side.
He has poor direction at release in 2019. He continues to pull glove side into release, especially with his head. This move might have caught his arm up to the rest of his body, but the positions it put him in are much worse in 2019 than in 2017.
The lines drawn from his hand through his shoulders are meant to show the plane of his arm at release. Part of having an efficient arm action is the throwing arm matching the plane of the shoulders. Neither of his clips show his arm completely on plane. Although in the 2017 clip his arm is more on plane than 2019, neither are perfect nor ideal.
The lack of timing, compensation to catch the arm up, and improper unraveling of the throwing arm can cause issues with health, command, and pitch movement.
Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (NTOS):
Over time, poor movement qualities in pitchers, who repeatedly move at such high forces, can lead to injuries. It’s hard to pinpoint one specific moment or season that caused Archer’s injury or that if he continued to move like he did in 2017 that he would or wouldn’t have gotten hurt. However, after evaluating his mechanical issues, it seems to me like his 2019 mechanics were the straw that broke the camel’s back. His mechanics got worse and his body eventually felt the consequences.
NTOS is the compression of nerves in the space between your collarbone and first rib. It is not uncommon in overhead athletes who endure repetitive movements at high-levels of competition. The symptoms of NTOS are pain in shoulder, neck, and arm as well as numbness in the fingers.
This can have a huge impact on performance of pitchers as they rely heavily on feel. Repeatedly throwing the ball at max effort while trying to command it in and out of the zone and create movement to those locations would be hard to do with pain throughout your arm and numbness in your fingers. This is exactly what Archer experienced during the 2019 season. Although he only missed the last month and a half due to NTOS symptoms, he very well could have pushed through similar symptoms earlier in the year causing him to dramatically underperform.
One can only speculate on if NTOS was the reason for his terrible 2019 campaign, but there is plenty of evidence to support that it was at least a factor.
Pitch Usage/Pitch Movement:
During the 2015-2017 seasons, Chris Archer had an obvious trend/pattern when it came to pitch usage. He mainly used a hard 4SFB up in the zone combined with a sharp SL low/away to RHHs and down/in to LHHs. He would also sprinkle in the occasional CH to keep hitters honest.
Archer’s 4SFB success during the 2015-2017 seasons matches almost perfectly with where he used that pitch the most. Batters had a lower SLG% and higher Whiff% on elevated 4SFBs (above the belt) and higher SLG% and lower Whiff% when he missed belt high and below.
As predicted, his SL success (SLG% and Whiff%) matches up with where the pitch was used, just like his 4SFB. Missing arm side with the SL (middle away to LHH/middle in to RHH) allowed hitters to slug at a higher % and whiff at a lower % than when he was able to dot up low glove side corner and bury it down and in to LHHs/low and away to RHHs.
The minute Archer was traded to the Pirates things began to change in a negative way. From his first start with his new team on 08/03/18 through the end of the 2019 season, his 4SFB heatmap shifted towards the middle of the plate and glove side and his SL heatmap shifted farther off the plate than before. It seems like he lost feel for his SL in the zone and was losing it glove side.
Because of this shift in 4SFB command, the xwOBA and xSLG of the pitch shot up to .392 and .554. Both are the highest in his career.
The next change he made was adding a sinker (SI) to his arsenal. This addition makes no sense when you look at the rest of his arsenal. Why does a guy who has had success elevating his 4SFB and ripping a hard SL down in the zone need to add a SI?
The SI quickly became the worst pitch in his arsenal as it racked up an xwOBA of .369 and .522 and an xSLG of .440 and .803 in ‘18 and ‘19. He used the pitch ~10.5% of the time in those two seasons and dropped his 4SFB and SL usage down to ~40% and ~36%. During his best seasons (2015-2017), his 4SFB and SL usage averaged 50% and 41%. A 10% decline in 4SFB usage and 5% decline in SL usage is significant. It’s even more significant when most of that extra 15% is used for a pitch that got absolutely hammered around the ballpark.
Lastly, Archer’s SL in 2019 was respectable but not nearly as dominant as it’s been in the past. This stems from his mechanical issues that started to pile up in 2019. Him pulling everything to his glove side caused his arm slot to change, which then affects the metrics of his SL, specifically its spin axis . The above image shows how much an outlier the 2019 season was for his SL in terms of spin axis and horizontal release point.
As mentioned above, his mechanical issues made it difficult for him to properly rip down on the side of the ball to create the depth that his SL used to have. His new arm slot only allowed him to be on the side of the ball so much and left him throwing a modified cutter with more horizontal break and less vertical break rather than his original hard SL with solid depth.
How Chris Archer Can Right The Ship:
First things first, he needs to make some mechanical adjustments. Whether Archer thinks he can pitch for another 3+ years or not, moving efficiently will not only keep him healthy, but allow him to perform like the ace version of himself.
Timing is everything and you can see how it affects every movement down the kinetic chain of energy. Fixing his timing is a big step forward in the right direction.
Creating a better coil in the back hip and more momentum down the mound without getting quad dominant and losing heel connection with the rubber. This should eliminate any leak of energy as he gets to front foot strike. This should also ensure that he doesn’t begin to rotate too early causing everything to pull off to the glove side.
Through release, he needs to have better rotation with the middle of his body and eliminate too much fold over his front leg. This should allow his arm to unravel on plane with his shoulders and put him in a better position to pull down on the side of the ball to create a SL with more depth.
*Disclaimer. There are a ton of drills to fix these issues and we would be here all day if I detailed even half of them.
Next, he needs to completely eliminate the SI from his arsenal. It doesn’t fit with the rest of his stuff and has been extremely ineffective during the two years he’s thrown it. Not to mention, a big cue when throwing a SI is to get on top of the ball to try and create that downward action. If Archer has been using any cues similar to that, it could be a factor in him pulling off to his glove side to help clear space so his arm and hand could get on top of the ball.
In 2019, Archer did, in fact, dabble with eliminating that SI. After his June 11th start, Archer’s SI usage dropped to 4% and bounced between 3.5% and 0% for the rest of the season. His overall xSLG and xwOBA continued to decline as his SI usage decreased. Everything to the right of the neon green line are the starts he made after June 11th. Adding even more evidence as to why he should scrap the SI.
The command of his 4SFB and SL should start to find its way back as he eliminates the SI and makes the right changes to his mechanics. However, there still needs to be some emphasis put on spinning that 4SFB up through the top of the zone and having the ability to drop the SL in for a strike when needed and burying it to his glove side to get whiffs.
Archer should keep using the occasional CH and CB to steal strikes and keep hitters honest, but getting back to that heavy 4SFB/SL combo will be key to his future success.
Overall, Chris Archer has some work to do if he wants to get back to striking out 200+ guys a season. It’s not completely out of reach, though. Even if he doesn’t make big strides in his mechanics, by simply going back to his pitch usage in 2015-2017, he can put himself in a good position to be a solid middle of the rotation arm with the ceiling of a frontline starter.
For more information, contact Turner Givens:
713-306-9980
turnergivens@yahoo.com
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