Making a Case for Blake Taylor as Astros' Closer

Everyone in baseball should know by now just how terribly the Houston Astros are struggling in the pitching department. Production isn't the main problem, rather the experience issues of the pitching staff, specifically the bullpen. Due to injuries of Osuna, Peacock, Devenski, and Pruitt, and the opt out from Joe Smith, the Astros have been forced to use 10 different rookie pitchers out of the pen so far this season. As a fan, it seems like this bullpen hasn't been fantastic in the late innings (7th-9th) and high leverage situations. Here are the bullpen's stats from those two situations:

7th-9th Innings (Sorted by PA):

(Image from: https://www.baseball-reference.com/)

High Leverage:

(Image from: Excel - Starting Pitchers had to be removed from list in Excel)

The totals by themselves are respectable. However, when you consider the situations they account for, you'd hope to see much better results. These two situations are what can win or lose a ballgame. In the late innings, any type of slip up can cost you the game. While high leverage situations might not always come late in a game, a crooked number can have a drastic change in win probability for either team.

With Osuna most likely out for the remainder of the season, there's one name in both images that stands out to me. You probably already guessed it based on the title of this article. LHP Blake Taylor.

The Astros acquired Blake Taylor in the 2019 offseason trade that sent Jake Marisnick to the Mets. A career 4.08 ERA with 292 Ks in 321.2 IP during 7 years in the minors isn't something that jumps off the page for most people. The 24-year old (drafted at 17, I know it's crazy) wasn't expected to make a big splash at the MLB level this season, but under the circumstances, he found his way into the bullpen as one of the only lefties the Astros have. As a rookie, in an extremely hectic season, Blake Taylor has kept his composure and been a surprisingly strong bullpen piece through the first 12 games. So much so that he has gained the trust of new skipper, Dusty Baker, enough to be thrown into the most high leverage situations out of anyone in the bullpen. Below I broke down his opponent slash line from the situations in the images above:

• 7th-9th innings: .200/.200/.300, 2 XBH in 20 PA

• High Leverage: .077/.250/.077, 0 XBH in 16 PA

I'm going to play devils advocate here. Maybe he's just getting lucky. Maybe opponents are squaring pitches up but right at defenders. You can be skeptical about basic stats all you want. But his pitch result percentile rankings from Baseball Savant don't lie a single bit.

(Image: Baseball Savant)

When I think about a successful closer, there's 3 things that need to be looked at:

1. Free passes - A closer can't give up too many walks or HBPs. Free passes mean traffic on the bases which means a more pressure filled inning.

2. Soft contact - A closer needs to limit the amount of hard contact he gives up on batted balls. Harder contact = higher chance for hits and base runners.

3. Whiffs - A closer needs to have swing and miss stuff to limit the amount of contact/balls in play allowed. More contact/balls in play = higher chance for base runners = ...... you get the point.

The importance of #1,#2, and #3 relies heavily on which is your strongest and which is your weakest. The more you can limit hard contact, the less you need swing and miss stuff. The more whiffs you create, the less you need to rely on soft contact.

Looking at Blake Taylor's stuff, he does a very good job with #2 and a good enough job with #1 and #3. Stated more simply, he ranks extremely high in soft contact and middle of the pack in whiffs and free passes.

When you take everything into consideration, including that he's been the least successful in low leverage situations, according to Baseball Reference, you can assume Blake Taylor could be successful in a closing role. The guy feeds off of pressure situations and is honestly the best option the Astros have at this point. So, Dusty Baker, what else is there to lose? This season has been a shit show so far. Maybe Blake Taylor can help clean that up a little bit.

UPDATE 1/4/20 (OFFSEASON): I'll eat my words a little bit. The Astros pitching staff may have had several hiccups throughout the year, but when evaluating what was available and what they had to overcome, I'd say they did exceptionally well. Now I need to start a new article making a case for Enoli Paredes as Astros' closer. That kid has a bright future.

Written by: Turner Givens

Twitter: @TurnerGivens

References: (https://www.baseball-reference.com/ & https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)